The dialogue dubbed as the “Islamabad talks” initiated over the weekend with the involvement of US and Iranian representatives. The American Vice President JD Vance and Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf are leading the discussions amidst an ongoing ceasefire between the two nations. Notably, the US President Donald Trump declared a temporary ceasefire following a request from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sahrif and Field Marshal Asim Munir to pursue negotiations with Iran. The diplomatic discussions are being held in Pakistan, showcasing Islamabad’s eagerness for a peace agreement between the US and Iran for various reasons, including maintaining a positive relationship with Trump and averting potential conflicts in its unstable western regions.
The presence of two influential nations with leverage over each other at the negotiation table suggests that the likelihood of a successful agreement is minimal. Failure of the “Islamabad talks” could have severe repercussions for Pakistan, affecting it in unexpected ways.
By hosting these talks, Islamabad aims not only to assert its global relevance but also to safeguard its strategic interests. Experts warn that a breakdown in negotiations could swiftly escalate tensions, potentially dragging Pakistan into a conflict. The urgency to reach a deal is seen as an attempt to avoid entanglement in a confrontation with Iran, given its defence pact with Saudi Arabia.
Raza Rumi, a Pakistani analyst based in the US, highlighted the significance of Islamabad’s efforts to position itself as a trusted mediator leveraging its relationships with Washington, Tehran, and key Gulf nations, as reported by DW news outlet.
PAKISTAN MIGHT FACE A FRIGHTENING SCENARIO IF TALKS FAIL
Pakistan’s geopolitical positioning and diplomatic engagements have left it in a precarious situation. Situated at the intersection of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, Pakistan is vulnerable to any escalations involving Iran. Moreover, its close defence ties with Saudi Arabia, a key rival of Iran, add complexity to its position.
Abdul Basit, a South Asia expert, warned of a potential “nightmare scenario” for Pakistan if the talks collapse, leading to potential hostilities with Iran. Pakistan’s entanglement in Middle East affairs is driven by its mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia.
Last year, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia inked a mutual defence pact, pledging to consider any aggression against one as an attack on both. Despite Iranian strikes on Saudi Arabia, Pakistan refrained from joining the conflict due to this pact.
While Pakistan condemned Iranian actions against Gulf nations, it strongly denounced the attack on Saudi energy facilities in early April. The country expressed solidarity with Riyadh under the defence pact and indicated readiness to engage if tensions escalate.
The situation de-escalated following Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire on the same day.
WHY PAKISTAN CANNOT AFFORD TO GET DRAGGED INTO THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Experts emphasize the paramount importance of